The mandate map from the 2026 elections leaves little room for simple solutions: the right-wing and haredi bloc stands at 53 seats, the opposition holds 48, and the Arab parties sit on the sidelines with 19 mandates. On paper, the political system appears completely stuck on its way to another round of elections. But beneath the surface, one player seems to be laying the groundwork for a particularly calculated chess game: Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman.
The emerging Lieberman strategy is not based on immediate gambles, but on long-distance breathing room and political patience.
Stage One: Let the Mandates Fail
In the first stage, the Lieberman move begins precisely by giving first rights to Yesh! party chairman Gadi Eisenkot. Lieberman is expected to recommend him to the president, with a clear understanding that Eisenkot will be unable to recruit the required majority and will fail in the task of forming a government.
After that, when the mandate passes for a two-week period to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the scenario is expected to repeat itself. Netanyahu, who does not hold an automatic 61 mandates, will hit a wall and fail to present a coalition.
The Winning Card: The Knesset's 21 Days
Lieberman's real drama is reserved for the third stage, the 21 days in which the mandate returns to the Knesset. In this situation, where any MK who succeeds in collecting 61 signatures can form a government, the time constraint becomes heavy political pressure on all the players in the field.
This is the moment when Lieberman plans to open a direct and rapid channel of contacts with the haredi parties. The central issue to be placed on the table will be an agreed framework for the draft law, one that will allow the haredim to join the coalition and bring the fingers needed to reach 61.
