Liberman may demand PM rotation in change-bloc talks

Political analyst Shirit Avitan Cohen addressed the election results and the options facing the change bloc in remarks on Monday. "Six days after the election and the change-bloc leaders cannot manage to convene a joint meeting to coordinate next steps. The main reason is a dispute over the identity of the Knesset speaker," Avitan Cohen said.

"The partners want the position in order to keep Eisenkot on a short leash until a government is formed, but Yesh Atid is inclined to preserve the role for itself to create options going forward. That way it won't need to be squeezed in the future by Liberman or Lapid, and can calculate its path to a change or unity government while holding the Knesset, as in the Benny Gantz precedent," she explained.

"This incident alone reveals the deep suspicion still prevailing among change-bloc leaders. Similar to the campaign period, it appears that both Bennett and Liberman have not yet been convinced that Eisenkot is capable or worthy of leading the government that will be formed, especially in light of the significant concessions on positions they presented earlier regarding partnership with the Arabs or the chareidim, or perhaps both together," Avitan Cohen said.

She added that political sources are already claiming Liberman is creating so many obstacles to forming a government so that his retreat from some of them will carry a significant price tag, such as the premiership itself.

According to political sources, Liberman may view the premiership as appropriate payment for sitting with the chareidim and Arabs, but also as achieving one of two goals he set for himself in this election: the premiership and removing Netanyahu from the political field by forming a government. Both of these, if he indeed receives the premiership from Eisenkot in a Lapid-Bennett 2021 model, would answer the declarations, promises and entire campaigns he led against a government with "draft dodgers," as he termed them, and against a government with the Joint List and Ra'am.

Avitan Cohen added that "due to the disputes in the bloc over the identity of the Knesset speaker, Liberman is still keeping his cards close and will make decisions according to the offers. Bennett for his part already announced yesterday that he will recommend Eisenkot receive the mandate first, but political sources do not rule out that he too may demand rotation for the prime minister position in return. In light of the election results, Bennett cannot go to another election if he is indeed required to cancel the political partnership with Lapid along the way. Seven mandates is a very dangerous dialing code for someone who sees himself as a candidate for prime minister."

"If a change government is indeed formed with United Torah Judaism (Yahadut HaTorah) and Ra'am and Liberman remains outside, Bennett may receive the defense minister portfolio. If Liberman joins, he may settle for finance minister. But right now all the change-bloc parties are occupied with trying to coordinate immediate moves such as at the President's Residence and legislation in the Knesset, rather than a government that requires complex ideological and logistical adjustments, starting with compromises on a draft law in the formula presented last night by Goldknopf, without targets and without sanctions, and ending with the fact that not a single MK will be found in Ra'am who will agree to declare loyalty to the four principles Eisenkot set out at the beginning of the road," she said.

"After cooperation with Ra'am was approved by most change-bloc parties following the 2021 government, the significant move now in the bloc is to pave the way for partnership with Yahadut HaTorah as mentioned. The draft-dodging law has been converted to a soft draft law, and the chareidim have turned from a burden to important partners in recent days. But Yaakov Asher not only needs to write his demands on a blank page and have the new partners sign, he will need to find a way to bring Porush into the room as well, who tends to oppose breaking away from the right-wing bloc."

In conclusion, she said: "And what about Eisenkot? The head of the largest party in the bloc can keep two options on the table, a government with the Arabs and chareidim, and also a unity government. Except that for the second option as well, he will prefer to go after he holds the Knesset speaker position and several very significant pressure levers on Netanyahu."

"To Eisenkot's regret, in the two days until the recommendations at President Herzog's residence, the change bloc will need to at least decide on the identity of the Knesset speaker before they can agree on a consensus candidate from among them for the premiership."