Segal: Bennett is key to any Israeli coalition deal

Political analyst Amit Segal weighed in Sunday on the coalition negotiations and attempts to form a government behind the scenes, and surprised when he said the most important man in Israeli politics right now is not who most people think.

"It's common to think the most important man in politics right now is Eisenkot, who will most likely be given the mandate to form a government," Segal wrote. "Others, out of habit, believe the power still lies with Netanyahu. Some are watching the mysterious Liberman, and the names of the presidents, Herzog and Trump, are mentioned as dealmakers. Many are closely following Abbas and Goldknopf as kingmakers, and that's considered a safe bet."

"I, for one, believe that the key man is sitting right now in Ra'anana, and his name is Naftali Bennett. Here's why: The chairman of Beyachad, just like the chairman of Yashar, is the only swing player on the axis in almost any possible government. Eisenkot won't want to enter government with Netanyahu without him, and can't enter any government that includes chareidim and/or Arabs without him."

"But there's a fundamental difference between the two. Eisenkot is supposed to serve as prime minister in a minority coalition or, at the very least, as an equal partner in a unity government. He has something significant to gain. Bennett has a lot to lose. He'll absorb a significant share of the criticism and electoral damage for every broken campaign promise, but on the income side he'll have to settle for a senior ministerial position, without a return to the most important office in the country."

Segal continued: "Beyachad finished the election with 12 seats, seven for Bennett and five for Lapid. Honestly, it's hard to see a scenario where all twelve join any government as a single bloc. The two leading scenarios are a minority government of forty-something members with the grace of United Torah Judaism, Ra'am and the Joint List. It's highly doubtful whether Bennett will agree to sacrifice himself once again on the altar of breaking a double core promise, both not to draft the chareidim and also to sit with the Arabs, when elections are on the horizon and he's starting them from a significantly weaker position: both the loss of votes from soldiers and right-wingers, and Eisenkot running a campaign from the Prime Minister's Office."

"On the other hand, joining a unity government with Netanyahu is something Lapid will find very hard to swallow. He hasn't sat with Netanyahu for over a decade, not even during war or corona; it's highly doubtful he'll do it for the Interior or Finance portfolio and after October 7th."

Segal concluded: "'The situation is pita,' a senior party figure summed up a week before the election, when it was already clear that neither side would reach 61. It was an accurate description. New elections may hold another opportunity to turn the pita into a baguette. Yashar's campaign slogan was 'This time Eisenkot', Bennett will say 'And this time, me.' And from that starting point comes his room for maneuver in the coalition negotiations that will take place here, perhaps even after 2027 begins."

"It seems almost self-evident that he'll recommend Eisenkot to form the government, because he has no other practical option given the election results. But to my friends at the Channel 12 news desk I'd suggest: station a camera crew in Ra'anana for the next two months. We may need the footage."