According to the analysis, Trump wants a strike to push Iran back to the negotiating table ready to give ground on its military nuclear program and on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. The strike would aim to weaken the regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
If Tehran still refused to talk, the continuing economic blockade would drain its revenue until it could no longer pay Revolutionary Guard personnel and regular troops, or meet the basic needs of civilians. In that scenario, the analysis said, Trump could declare victory, withdraw most of the costly naval force he maintains in the Gulf and wait for Iran to ask for renewed talks.
The analysis listed three military goals under the American approach:
- Preventing Iranian attacks on ships in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has used speedboats to attach small magnetic mines to the hulls of vessels moving near the coast of Oman under American protection
- Limiting Iranian attacks on US allies
- Preventing a return to uranium enrichment for more than five years.
The operation would be short, lasting only a few days, but highly intensive, the analysis said. It would rely on major airpower and possibly Marines, and would hit Iranian infrastructure that the US and Israel have either never struck or have damaged only to a limited extent. CNN reported that US Central Command forces are prepared to act within 96 hours of a presidential decision.
On October 28, N12 and The Wall Street Journal said Trump was leaning toward a broad operation against Iran after the US midterm elections, though he had not made a final decision.
