Nadav Eyal: Most likely outcome in Israeli politics revealed

Journalist and analyst Nadav Eyal published a sharp analysis today (Sunday) on the balance of power between the blocs, estimating that the central scenario still on the table is heading to repeat elections.

"The probability of over 50%, unfortunately, is still for another round of elections. For now," Eyal states. "But this probability can change and drop according to Eisenkot's steps, Liberman's positions and more."

"A bloc of 67 mandates that agrees on almost nothing"

Eyal says the opposition and Arab parties hold the cards, and points to the one thing that, amid recent events, keeps them united:

"The cards are with whoever has 67 opposition mandates. A lot is said about what divides these mandates, and too little about what unites them: the feeling that if this government continues to rule, the chance that there will be more free and equal elections is shrinking, if not in danger. The Ra'amgate affair and the Shin Bet's conduct in the second affair certainly arouse this sentiment."

"If not now, when"

He emphasizes that despite the deep ideological disagreements between the components of the opposition bloc and the Arab parties, the sense of urgency may produce a surprising political move:

"This is a bloc of 67 people who don't agree on almost anything except for the following point, which they feel with great intensity: if not now, when," he concluded. "Again, this won't necessarily lead to replacing Netanyahu, but it has great potential. It depends mainly on behind-the-scenes conduct, on cooperation."