Far-Right AfD Widens Lead in Eastern Germany

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany is on track to become the strongest party in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election in September, according to a new poll published Thursday, raising the possibility that the party could finish first in a regional vote and increase pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government.

The infratest dimap survey showed the AfD rising to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, up two points from the previous poll. Merz’s conservative CDU stood at 26%, while the Social Democrats, junior partners in the federal coalition, were at 7%.

The result would mark a major advance for the AfD in one of Germany’s eastern states, where the party has long drawn its strongest support. The party’s top candidate in Saxony-Anhalt is Ulrich Siegmund.

The AfD has gained ground nationally as well, with recent polls showing it roughly level with the CDU. The rise comes one year after Merz took office and amid growing public dissatisfaction with the governing coalition.

The party campaigns on hardline migration policies and has also called for closer ties with Russia. Other major parties have said they will not cooperate with the AfD, but its growing support has complicated efforts to form stable governments in eastern states.

The Saxony-Anhalt election, scheduled for September 6, could therefore become a major test of whether Germany’s mainstream parties can continue to keep the AfD out of power at the regional level.

According to the poll, the Left party is at 12%, while the Greens and the populist BSW are each at 4%, below the threshold required to enter the state parliament. If those numbers hold, coalition options without the AfD could be limited and difficult to negotiate.

The political pressure comes as Germany faces broader economic concerns, including the impact of the Iran war on energy prices and the country’s fragile recovery. Rising costs and dissatisfaction with Berlin’s leadership have strengthened the AfD’s position, particularly in the east.

The AfD’s expected first-place finish would not automatically allow it to form a government, since other parties continue to rule out cooperation. But a result near 40% would give the party significant influence over the post-election landscape and further underline the challenge facing Merz and the CDU ahead of future regional and national contests.