The Uranium Trade-Off: US Ready to Tolerate Iranian Enrichment for a Peace Deal

The long-stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran may be reaching a turning point, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Fidan revealed that both Washington and Tehran are beginning to display a "meaningful shift" in their postures during indirect talks held in Oman. The most significant development is an apparent willingness by the U.S. to tolerate limited uranium enrichment within Iranian borders, provided it is kept under a strict, "clearly defined" inspection regime. While this flexibility offers a potential path to avoiding a larger war, Fidan issued a stern warning: the peace process is fragile, and any move to expand the negotiations to include Iran’s ballistic missile program will likely cause the talks to collapse and ignite a regional conflagration.

The Limits of Flexibility

Fidan’s assessment suggests that Washington has recognized the "technical reality" that Iran will not completely dismantle its enrichment capacity without a regime-level surrender. Instead, the U.S. appears to be moving toward a model where Iran can continue enriching uranium at low levels, similar to the 2015 agreement, in exchange for massive sanctions relief and intrusive monitoring. "It is positive that the Americans appear willing to tolerate Iranian enrichment within clearly set boundaries," Fidan noted, adding that the Iranians now understand they "need to reach a deal" to survive the current economic crisis and domestic unrest.

However, the "missile file" remains a dangerous hurdle. While Prime Minister Netanyahu has demanded that any deal must include the destruction of Iran’s ballistic missiles, Fidan argues that such an ultimatum is "unrealistic." He cautioned that if the U.S. "insists on addressing all the issues simultaneously," referring to missiles and regional proxies, the nuclear file "will not move forward." According to the Turkish diplomat, pushing for a "total deal" that includes military hardware would be seen as an act of aggression by Tehran, potentially leading to the very war the diplomats are trying to prevent.

A Regional Nuclear Race?

The urgency of these talks is compounded by the fear of a regional arms race. Fidan previously suggested that if Iran were to successfully obtain nuclear weapons, Turkey might be "compelled to join" the race to maintain the "balance of power" in the Middle East. This admission puts pressure on both sides to find a compromise that prevents weaponization while allowing for "peaceful" enrichment. As the negotiations in Oman continue, the world is watching to see if the Trump administration will accept a partial win on the nuclear front or if the demand to include missiles, as requested by Israel, will lead to the end of diplomacy and the start of a "Midnight Hammer" style operation.