US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has forecast that Iran's economy will shrink by more than 25% between March 2026 and March 2027. He said that would be a steeper fall than the one the Soviet Union suffered after its collapse.
Bessent also gave his own figure for the Iranian currency. He estimates that the rial has now passed three million to the US dollar. He said this is why Iranian authorities no longer publish the exchange rate.
Bessent's estimate is far weaker than the rate recorded at the end of the summer. In late August, the dollar was then trading at about 2.07 million rials. At that rate, the currency had lost roughly half its value since the start of 2026. Abdolnaser Hemmati, then identified as governor of Iran's Central Bank, acknowledged at the time that the country's oil exports had "effectively stopped."
