Abandoned by Beirut? Why Hezbollah is Staying Out of the Iran War

As the prospect of a US strike on Iran looms, the regional "Axis of Resistance" appears to be fractured and hesitant. Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has reportedly signaled that it does not intend to intervene or take military action if the United States or Israel strikes its patrons in Tehran. Sources familiar with the terror group's thinking stated that while diplomats have been frantically seeking guarantees that the group will stay on the sidelines, Hezbollah has only offered a vague condition. They reportedly claimed they would only act if the strike posed an "existential threat to the Iranian leadership" itself, suggesting they are unwilling to burn Lebanon down for anything less than the total survival of the Ayatollahs.

This lack of "explicit guarantees" has left the region in a state of high tension, but the lack of immediate mobilization from Beirut is telling. Analysts suggest that Hezbollah is still reeling from the fallout of the war in Gaza and the subsequent weakening of Iranian influence across the Middle East. The terror group is carefully calculating its own domestic position in Lebanon, fearing that a war with Israel would lead to its own destruction. This hesitance represents a significant departure from the traditional doctrine of "unification of fronts," where all Iranian proxies were expected to strike simultaneously.

The panic is not limited to Lebanon. In Yemen, the Houthi terrorists are reportedly in a state of "panic and confusion" as they watch their primary source of funding and weapons crumble under the weight of domestic protests. According to reports from the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, the Houthi leadership is terrified that the fall of the Iranian regime would lead to their own collapse. They have increased the deployment of armed men around government buildings in Sana'a, fearing that the revolutionary spirit in Tehran might inspire a similar uprising against their own brutal rule. This widespread instability among Iran’s proxies suggests that the "oxygen pipeline" of terror is more vulnerable than ever.