WSJ: Israel and Hamas Brace for Renewed War in Gaza

Israel and Hamas are preparing for a potential return to full-scale war in Gaza, with Israeli military officials drafting plans for a new ground offensive and Hamas rebuilding its forces amid stalled negotiations on a U.S.-backed peace plan.

The developments, reported early Saturday, highlight the fragility of the October ceasefire that ended two years of devastating fighting.

According to sources briefed on the matter, Israel's military has outlined strategies for invading Hamas-controlled areas, though no immediate action is planned.

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned in November that the army must be ready to "quickly transition to a wide attack across the other side of the yellow line," referring to the boundary separating Israeli-held territory from Hamas's domain.

Security analysts suggest a renewed campaign could be swifter and less complex than previous operations, given the absence of hostage concerns and the displacement of Palestinians into tent camps, facilitating easier evacuations.

Former senior military planner Erez Winner described a potential offensive as "much faster and easier than people want to believe," while ex-defense official Amir Avivi noted options for either a rapid invasion of Gaza City to force surrender or a gradual takeover.

On the other side, Hamas is actively regenerating its military strength, repairing damaged tunnels and appointing new commanders to replace those killed in prior clashes.

The group has secured fresh funding through tunnel-stored cash, taxes on goods and services, and Iranian transfers via intermediaries, enabling consistent salary payments to fighters and government workers.

Israeli estimates peg Hamas's arsenal at 60,000 rifles and 20,000 fighters, with the organization cracking down on internal dissent to solidify control.

While Hamas has expressed willingness to relinquish heavy weapons, it refuses to surrender small arms, a stance that has become a major impasse.

The October ceasefire divided Gaza, with Israel controlling over half the territory and Hamas the remainder, but progress on the second phase—requiring Hamas to cede governance and disarm—has ground to a halt.

President Trump's peace proposal envisions an international stabilization force and a committee of Palestinian technocrats, overseen by a U.S.-chaired "Board of Peace," to manage the region after Israeli forces withdraw to a buffer zone. However, Hamas's disarmament refusal has derailed these efforts, with Israel and the U.S. insisting on full compliance.

Trump issued a stark warning in December, stating there would be "hell to pay" if the group doesn't relinquish its weapons.

Additional hurdles include Israel's delay in reopening the Rafah border crossing for Palestinian movement and the unresolved return of the last deceased Israeli hostage's body.

Reconstruction in Gaza remains frozen until disarmament occurs, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis for its two million residents, many living in makeshift shelters.

Efforts to assemble the international force have faltered, as few nations are willing to commit without Hamas's cooperation.

Meanwhile, Hamas faces internal leadership elections, with hard-liners like Khalil Al-Hayya and Ezzedin Al-Haddad opposing concessions, while Khaled Mashal appears more flexible.

The potential escalation in Gaza occurs against a backdrop of regional volatility, including Israel's monitoring of Hezbollah's rebuilding in Lebanon—where Lebanese forces claim to be disarming the group—and Iran's efforts to restore its ballistic missile program after a brief war in June.

Trump has also signaled support for Israeli strikes against Iran if necessary.