The Barnea Assessment: How the Mossad Chief Predicted the Fall of the Regime
The head of the Mossad, David Barnea, reportedly told Prime Minister Netanyahu that a total regime change in Iran is possible if the military achieves its strategic goals.
On the eve of the current war, a high level intelligence assessment suggested that the ultimate goal of the campaign, the collapse of the Iranian regime, was a realistic and achievable target. David Barnea, the head of the Mossad, reportedly presented this optimistic view to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during closed door sessions. The assessment was based on the idea that if the Israeli and American militaries could successfully decapitate the Iranian leadership and destroy the regime’s "force of oppression," the Mossad and the CIA would be able to facilitate a domestic uprising that would lead to a new government in Tehran. This revelation sheds light on why "creating the conditions for regime change" was listed as a primary objective of the war from day one.
The Mossad-CIA Alliance
According to the reports, Barnea clarified that the military's role is to provide the "opening" by severely damaging the institutions of the state and the individuals who run them. Once the IRGC's command structure is sufficiently broken, intelligence agencies would move to coordinate with internal Iranian opposition groups to bring the masses into the streets. While Barnea included caveats regarding the unpredictable nature of such a transition and the time it might take, the fundamental belief was that the Iranian public is ready for an alternative if the fear of the security forces can be removed.
Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this sentiment in a recent address to the foreign press, stating that while it is too early to tell if the Iranian people will take the opportunity to revolt, the conditions are being created for them to do so. "I see this war ending much faster than people think," Netanyahu told reporters in English, adding that America and its allies are fighting to protect the future of the free world. When asked by the Israeli public how much longer the campaign will last, his answer remained firm: "As long as is required." The focus now remains on grinding down the regime's defensive capabilities to the point where the internal pressure becomes unsustainable.