Israel is not happy: US to pull half its troops out of Syria

The U.S. has informed Israel that it is preparing to reduce its forces in Syria, a move that is causing concern among many in Israel. For now, a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria is not planned, but according to reports in U.S. media, preparations are underway to halve the number of troops. Israel’s main concern is that the vacuum created by the American withdrawal will be filled by hostile actors, particularly Turkey, and possibly Iran-linked groups.

According to a Reuters report, the U.S. is preparing to reduce the number of American soldiers in Syria from 2,000 to 1,000 in the coming weeks and months. It is estimated that some of the bases operated by the U.S. military in Syria will be abandoned. The U.S. primarily operates in northern and eastern Syria.

The assessment is that a withdrawal from northern Syria, where the U.S. military operates alongside Kurdish forces, is detrimental to Israel. In areas where they are expected to retreat, in provinces considered part of the Kurdish region, hostile forces, particularly Turkish or pro-Turkish elements, could move in.

This move comes after reports of Turkey’s preparations in recent weeks to seize control of strategic key bases in Syria, and significant efforts by Israel to thwart this. Additionally, the Kurdish SDF forces, the main allies of the U.S. military in Syria, signed a historic agreement about a month ago with the Syrian leadership under President Ahmad al-Sharaa, significantly reducing their influence. It is estimated that the Kurdish forces will gradually integrate into Syria’s official security forces.

One of the major implications of a partial U.S. withdrawal from Syria is the fight against the ISIS terrorist organization. In recent months, especially since the fall of Assad in December, the U.S. military has intensified its operations against ISIS terrorists in Syria, fearing they might exploit the advantage created by the revolution in the country.

The Kurdish forces continue to manage prisons in eastern and northeastern Syria, where ISIS members are held, as well as detention camps holding the children and wives of ISIS fighters. The new situation could create an opportunity for mass prison breaks, a scenario the U.S. has already described as a “doomsday scenario” amid the Trump administration’s cessation of economic support for Kurdish forces.

The U.S. military presence in eastern Syria has been crucial in recent years as part of the effort to counter Iranian and pro-Iranian entrenchment in Syria. Since the fall of Assad, Iran’s grip on Syria has effectively been dismantled, but according to numerous reports, the Revolutionary Guards and their proxies are constantly attempting to resume activities in Syria. A U.S. withdrawal could facilitate this.

Israel fears that this series of developments could harm the IDF’s freedom of action in Syria. However, it is assessed that this is a very preliminary stage of the move, and it is still unclear how it will manifest in practice and what its full implications will be. The move is considered no less than dramatic, and preparations are underway to make decisions on the matter. The move presents the defense establishment and political leadership with a dilemma: how to act, how and when to strike, out of concern for escalating the confrontation with Turkey.

A U.S. security official told Reuters that he is highly skeptical about the U.S. withdrawal plans from Syria in the coming weeks, given the Trump administration’s trend of building up and amassing forces against Iran as part of an effort to pressure Tehran in negotiations. As part of recent force buildups, American military assets have also been transferred to bases in Syria.