The Unraveling Initiative
Senior Israeli political analyst Amit Segal has issued a stark warning regarding the future of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, declaring on X that the ambitious initiative is currently "on life support." This warning comes even as Trump pushes forward with plans to announce the transition to the deal's second phase within weeks, before the Christmas holiday.
According to Segal, the reality on the ground sharply contradicts the President’s optimistic assertions. The key stumbling block is Hamas's refusal to disarm and the lack of any country willing to enter Gaza to confront the terror group. Segal argues that with these conditions, the resumption of fighting is "almost inevitable."
The analyst suggests that Jerusalem should adopt a patient approach, giving the situation a "few months" to allow the President's "fantasies" to fade. This, Segal believes, will effectively demonstrate that no viable alternative remains other than renewed IDF military action against Hamas. He also noted the political dilemma facing Trump, who has repeatedly hailed the plan as historic and transformative, questioning, "How does he walk that all back?"
The Details of Phase Two
Despite Segal's skepticism, high-ranking American officials and Western sources directly involved in the process confirm that the US is in the final stages of preparing for Phase Two. The US is aiming to announce the shift before Christmas to prevent the fragile ceasefire, achieved on October 11, from dissolving.
Phase Two hinges on three main components:
- Further withdrawal of the IDF from large areas of Gaza.
- Deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF).
- Establishment of a new governing body in Gaza.
The UN Security Council has already sanctioned the operation of both the ISF and the new Gaza administration. American officials are optimistic, saying that all elements are in an "advanced stage" and hope to launch them within two to three weeks.
The New Governing Structure
The planned new governance structure in Gaza is highly detailed:
- Council of Peace (BOP): This will oversee the entire process, led by President Trump and approximately ten leaders from Arab and Western nations.
- International Executive Committee: Reporting to the BOP, this board is set to include former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, alongside Trump advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, and other senior officials from the BOP member states.
- Palestinian Technocrat Government: Beneath the executive committee will be a government of 12–15 Palestinian experts experienced in administration and business. Crucially, these individuals must not be affiliated with Hamas, Fatah, or any other Palestinian faction. The initial candidate list of 25 has reportedly been halved, with some candidates currently residing in Gaza and others prepared to return. The US is finalizing agreements with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and regional countries on the composition of this government.
The ISF will deploy alongside this technocrat government, primarily in areas currently controlled by the IDF, facilitating further Israeli withdrawal. Countries like Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Turkey have reportedly expressed willingness to contribute troops to this international force.
The Ultimate Question: Hamas’s Disarmament
The core of the matter remains the negotiation with Hamas, conducted through mediators Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. The proposed equation is stark: "The IDF exits Gaza – and Hamas exits power."
American and mediating sources are reportedly optimistic about reaching a deal in which Hamas would agree to step down from governing Gaza and begin a phased disarmament process, starting with heavy weaponry. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains significantly more skeptical, though a Western source noted he is "committed to giving it a chance to work."
The major looming challenge, described by a Western source as the "moment of truth," is whether Hamas will agree to disarm and allow the new technocrat government to rule without its direct or indirect influence.
