Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in $54m Polymarket bet on next PM

With one day to go before Israel votes, Gadi Eisenkot is the favorite to become the country's next prime minister, at least according to traders on Polymarket, the prediction-betting platform where $54 million has been wagered on the outcome.

Eisenkot is given a 56% probability of taking the premiership, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing at 28.5%. Naftali Bennett sits at 10.5%, and Avigdor Lieberman at 1.7%.

In a separate market on which party will be largest in the Knesset, the Yashar! party is priced at 72.5%, compared to 26.5% for Likud. On the bloc question, the opposition bloc is given a 53.5% chance of winning a majority, against 46.5% for the Netanyahu bloc.

Gadi Eisenkot (Photo: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

But even with the opposition bloc ahead in the forecasts, traders are skeptical that any side will be able to form a stable government: the odds of assembling a coalition with a working majority stand at just 19.5%, while the probability of a hung Knesset, in which neither side secures a stable majority, is priced at 50%.

Polymarket is a prediction platform where traders use real money to bet on the outcomes of future events, including elections, political developments and economic shifts. Prices in the market reflect traders' collective assessment of the probability of each outcome, but do not constitute a poll or a guaranteed forecast.