Days before the election, Kan News journalist Yaara Shapira published data on Monday showing a turnout gap between the blocs that could reshape the Knesset. The figures, based on polling analysis by Kan pollster Dudi Hasid, point to three trends working against Prime Minister Netanyahu: opposition voters are more committed to turning out, chareidi turnout may fall sharply from the last election, and Arab turnout may rise by double digits.
"Turnout percentages are among the hardest data to predict in advance," Shapira wrote, noting that the decision to vote is shaped by last-minute factors including campaign intensity, public mood, and even the weather on election day.
Still, she said, the current trends do not favor Netanyahu's bloc, which in past elections managed to close gaps through a late surge in turnout.
According to the Kan poll broadcast on Friday, 80% of opposition supporters said they would definitely vote, compared to 75% of coalition supporters, a five-point gap in stated willingness to turn out.
Shapira noted that opposition turnout was also higher in the last election, but the gap then was estimated at only one to two points, and Netanyahu still won.
The number likely to concern the chareidi parties most is the projected drop in chareidi turnout: In the last election, overall turnout stood at around 70.6%, while chareidi turnout reached approximately 82%. Now, according to Hasid's model, stated willingness to vote among chareidim stands at only around 75%.
If the forecast holds, that would represent a drop of roughly seven percentage points from actual chareidi turnout in the last election. That said, the figure reflects stated intent to vote, not measured turnout on the day.
