Three scenarios for Israel's next government after election

Kan News reporter Yaara Shapira said Tuesday evening that while it remains unclear who will succeed in forming Israel's next government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already suffered a significant political defeat in the Knesset 26 elections.

"It's not yet clear if there's a winner in the election, but there's definitely a loser: Benjamin Netanyahu," Shapira wrote on her X account. She noted that the outgoing coalition held 68 Knesset seats, while according to exit polls the Netanyahu bloc is projected to win only around 50 mandates, a number that does not allow him to form a government on his own.

Shapira also addressed the high voter turnout, saying that figures in the Netanyahu camp attribute the results to it, though she argued it reflects voters' desire for change or dissatisfaction with their representatives.

According to Shapira, segments of the chareidi public chose not to go to the polls as a form of quiet protest, while the Arab public voted at high rates compared to previous election cycles. She raised the possibility that Arab voter turnout could lead to another round of elections.

Shapira went on to address Netanyahu's continued hold on power since the events of October 7, arguing that the emerging results show the reason is not necessarily broad public support for him, but rather the difficulty his opponents face in agreeing on an alternative candidate.

"Netanyahu has remained in power until now not because the majority of the public wants him, but because the majority that wants to remove him has difficulty agreeing on his replacement," she wrote.

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Three scenarios for forming the next government

Shapira presented three possible scenarios for assembling a government in the new Knesset.

The first option is forming a minority government with the support of the Arab parties, which she said would contradict the election promises of two leaders in the change bloc.

The second option is defection from the Netanyahu bloc, whether of an entire party or individual MKs, which would enable the creation of an alternative majority in the Knesset.

The third option is forming a unity government, which could include a rotation arrangement for the premiership.

In Shapira's assessment, Gadi Eisenkot will work to advance the first two scenarios simultaneously. At the same time, she estimated that once the results become clear, Netanyahu may propose a unity government that includes rotation.

However, she said the question of the order of service in the rotation is expected to be decisive. Shapira argued that if Eisenkot agrees to let Netanyahu serve first, it could seriously damage his political future.

On the other hand, the possibility of Eisenkot serving first could place him in contradiction to a previous campaign promise.

"And what about rotation with Eisenkot first, contrary to his original promise? In the coming weeks and months we may discover just how flexible that election promise was," Shapira concluded.