Ayatollah Alive, but IRGC in Charge

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to be alive but not in full control of the country’s leadership, according to assessments from Israeli and US sources.

Officials familiar with the intelligence said the balance of power currently appears to favor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with Khamenei playing a limited or largely symbolic role.

“The more likely scenario is that the Revolutionary Guards are controlling him, not the other way around,” one source said, adding that a clearer picture could emerge in the coming days.

According to the same assessments, Khamenei is believed to have been wounded but remains alive and capable of performing some functions. However, his authority is described as significantly weaker than the centralized control long exercised by his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The situation has fueled growing uncertainty about Iran’s leadership structure amid the ongoing US-Israeli war.

Speculation intensified during Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, when Khamenei was expected to deliver a public address. Instead, only a written statement was released, accompanied by still images whose timing could not be verified.

The absence of a live or recorded appearance has raised further questions about his condition and the extent of his control over decision-making.

Analysts say the current dynamic, if confirmed, would indicate a shift toward more direct control by the IRGC, which already plays a central role in Iran’s military and political system.

Such a shift could have implications for both internal stability and Iran’s conduct in the ongoing conflict, as power becomes more concentrated within the country’s security apparatus.