The Oil Weapon: Iran Threatens Multi-Year Energy Blackout if War Begins

As diplomatic teams prepare to head to Geneva for a high-stakes Tuesday summit, the Iranian leadership has issued a defiant and aggressive response to President Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum. General Mousavi, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, labeled Trump’s recent demands as "reckless" and unbefitting of a world leader. While the U.S. has pushed for a swift deal to curb nuclear activity, Tehran has signaled that it has no intention of backing down on its core capabilities. In a series of coordinated statements from the military, parliament, and state media, Iran has made it clear that while it is willing to discuss economic cooperation, its uranium enrichment program and missile stockpiles are non-negotiable. Furthermore, the regime has warned that any attempt to resolve the standoff through force will result in a regional war that will bypass Iran’s borders and shatter the stability of the global energy market for years to come.

Red Lines and Economic Demands

Ebrahim Rezai, the spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, stated firmly on Sunday that the Geneva talks will not include concessions on nuclear fuel. "In the round of negotiations in Geneva, we will not discuss stopping or giving up uranium enrichment, and there is no intention to remove Iran's nuclear stockpiles from the country," Rezai said. He claimed that these points were already accepted by the Americans and are entirely separate from regional issues or missile development. According to Rezai, the "Zionist regime" remains the central problem in the region and should be dealt with in a separate framework with neighboring countries.

While the nuclear side of the talks remains stalled, Iran is looking to leverage its economic potential. Deputy Foreign Minister Kanbari noted that the current negotiations include mutual interests in oil and gas, mining investments, and even the purchase of aircraft. For any agreement to remain stable, Kanbari argued that the U.S. must also see "high and fast economic returns." Crucially, Iran is demanding the total and permanent release of frozen assets. "The release of Iran's limited or frozen resources must be real and usable, not just symbolic or temporary," Kanbari insisted, adding that no internal institution should slow down its routine activity because of the ongoing talks.

The Threat of Global Economic Ruin

The most severe warnings came from the ultra-conservative Kayhan newspaper, which is closely aligned with the Supreme Leader. The publication cautioned that the world is underestimate the cost of a war with Iran. While many analysts focus on the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Kayhan warned that Iran’s response would involve the physical destruction of energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. "If the war expands, vital energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, including oil production facilities, refineries, transmission lines, and export terminals, will be under serious threat," the paper stated.

The article explained that while a blocked shipping lane can be reopened quickly, the destruction of refineries takes years and billions of dollars to repair. In such a scenario, the global market would face a prolonged oil shortage that would cripple the economies of both Western and regional powers. Citing the failures of Western military campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the war against terrorists in Gaza, the Iranian press argued that military superiority does not guarantee victory. Instead, an attack on Iran would only "strengthen the discourse of resistance" and unite actors opposed to Western hegemony, turning a regional war into a permanent global crisis.