In the first round, Le Pen receives 36%, up one point in a week and two points since September. Mélenchon, by contrast, takes just 16%, after gaining a point in the latest poll. The gap between them stands at 20 points even before the runoff.
One explanation for the enormous margin is Le Pen's ability to draw voters from outside the right-wing camp. According to the poll, in a matchup against Mélenchon she wins 44% of those who voted for Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the 2022 election, as well as 93% of those who backed Éric Zemmour that year.
The picture shifts when other second-round scenarios are tested. Against Raphaël Glucksmann or Édouard Philippe, Le Pen still leads, but by a far narrower margin: 56% to 44% in both cases. In the first round, Glucksmann and Philippe rank third and fourth, with 13% and 12% respectively.
David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes, gained two points to reach 6%, a figure that puts him level with Bruno Retailleau, the Republican right candidate. Both are ahead of former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Éric Zemmour, who each receive 4%.
The poll notes that in the second-round scenario against Mélenchon, 33% of respondents have not yet stated a voting intention. The figures come against the backdrop of deep political and social crisis in France, with waves of protests and unrest in recent weeks that appear only to be bringing Le Pen closer to power.
