In the opposition camp, Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad was projected as the third-largest party, with 12 seats on Channel 12 and 14 on Channel 13. Yair Golan's Democrats took nine seats in both polls. Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu received nine on Channel 12 and seven on Channel 13.
On Netanyahu's side, Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, were each projected at six seats on Channels 12 and 13. Channel 14 gave each of them seven.
Reports of the Channel 12 poll differed on the Haredi parties. JNS listed Shas at eight seats and United Torah Judaism at six. Ynet had United Torah Judaism at seven and Shas at six. Both outlets put United Torah Judaism at seven and Shas at six on Channel 13.
The exit polls reversed the final pre-election surveys, which had consistently placed Eisenkot's Yashar ahead of Likud. As JFeed reported earlier in the evening, i24's exit poll gave Likud 27 seats and Yashar 20.
The two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, were projected at a combined 17–18 seats. That is up from 14 and 16 in the final pre-election polls on Channels 12 and 13. Opposition leaders have largely ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties. Golan is the exception. The exit polls opened the possibility of a minority government that could survive a confidence vote without 61 seats, but resistance within the opposition bloc to relying on Arab parties could block that route.
Three smaller parties were projected to miss the 3.25% electoral threshold. They are Ofer Winter's People of Israel, the Reservists-Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha, and the Haredi Public party, which had courted ultra-Orthodox voters unhappy with the established religious parties. Votes for lists that fail to cross the threshold are excluded from seat allocation. Record turnout also raised the number of votes needed to get in.
Turnout reached 74.3% by 8 p.m., or 5,449,277 voters out of 7,331,981 eligible. At the same hour in 2022, the figure was 66.3%. Ynet described it as the highest rate at that hour since 1988. The Jerusalem Post cited Central Elections Committee records showing the highest turnout since at least 1973. Some voters waited more than an hour at polling stations. Around 330,000 young Israelis were eligible to vote for the first time.
Earlier on Tuesday, as JFeed reported, a leaked recording caught Netanyahu alarmed over low Haredi turnout. "Have the ultra-Orthodox gone crazy? Crazy? They're not voting? We're doomed!" he was heard saying. Likud and Netanyahu had also asked for polling stations to stay open beyond 10 p.m. Later official figures showed turnout recovering in Likud strongholds.
Casting his ballot at a school in Jerusalem, Netanyahu said he was voting "For the future of the State of Israel." He added: "We cannot leave this battle in the hands of the left and the Arab parties." Eisenkot voted at a school in Herzliya and told supporters: "We are setting Israel on a new path. We will be worthy of your trust. I promise."
Adalah, a legal center for Arab minority rights, filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee, JTA reported. The group accused senior government officials of inciting against Arab citizens voting as turnout in Arab towns rose.
A unity government looks remote. Eisenkot has refused to serve under Netanyahu, including in a rotation arrangement, and other opposition leaders have also ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. Eisenkot has proposed that the leader of the largest opposition party become the bloc's candidate for prime minister. No agreement on that has been announced.
Final numbers may take days. More than 650,000 double-envelope ballots require separate verification and counting. They include votes from soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and voters away from their registered stations. Election officials warned the count could run until Friday morning, and those ballots could decide the fate of parties near the threshold.
Official results will be certified on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party leaders and choose the lawmaker he considers most likely to form a government, who need not head the largest party. That candidate gets 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If no government is formed, Israel would return to the polls in about 90 days. "I really, truly will do all I can so there won't be repeat elections," Herzog said.
