Two Weeks to Breakout: The Chilling New Estimate for Iran's Nuclear Weapon
Former intelligence official Major General Tamir Hayman warns that despite heavy military and economic damage, the Iranian nuclear program remains almost untouched by the current war.
Major General (Res.) Tamir Hayman, the head of the Institute for National Security Studies and a former high ranking intelligence official, has issued a sobering assessment of the war against Iran. In his first major interview since returning from reserve duty, Hayman told News 12 that while the Iranian military and economy have been severely degraded, the core existential threat to Israel, the nuclear program, remains largely intact. He warned that without a definitive resolution through either a "perfect deal" or a massive military strike, the region remains at a dangerous stalemate similar to the start of the war.
Hayman analyzed the three primary goals defined by the Israeli government: toppling the regime, removing the nuclear threat, and eliminating the missile threat. He noted that while Iran is significantly weaker than it was months ago, the regime has survived its most difficult challenge yet. "Iran is weaker, especially in the military field, with the erosion of the Revolutionary Guard's air and sea capabilities," Hayman stated. However, he cautioned that the "breakout time" to a nuclear weapon is essentially back to where it was before the war. He revealed that before the current campaign, Iran was only "two weeks" away from having enough fissile material for a bomb.
The General explained that because Israel is fighting as part of a coalition rather than in a simple partnership, there have been "limitations and restraints" imposed by the United States that prevented a total strike on nuclear infrastructure. "We hardly touched the nuclear issue," he warned, noting that the 440 kilograms of enriched uranium currently held by Tehran is just one component of a larger problem. He emphasized that a true breakout time assessment must include the number of underground sites and advanced centrifuges, all of which continue to exist despite the months of fighting.
Looking forward, Hayman warned that relying solely on a siege to topple the regime is a "complete gamble" with no historical precedent for success. He argued that if the war ends without addressing the nuclear file, the overall balance of the campaign could be seen as negative for Israel. "If the nuclear threat is not treated, then the question is asked, what did we do in this whole event?" he remarked. With President Trump’s patience potentially wearing thin, Hayman suggested that the window for a decisive military or diplomatic victory is closing, leaving Israel at a critical crossroads.