Will Israel Create New States in Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen?

Just days after Israel became the first country to formally recognize the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent state, reports in Israeli media have highlighted claims that Jerusalem is contemplating similar moves in southern Yemen to bolster its position against Iran-backed Houthi forces.

According to a Maariv article published today, Egyptian media personality Nashat al-Dihy, a prominent voice on Egypt's TeN channel. asserted in his program "Paper and Pen" that Israel is orchestrating a "master plan" to foster three new states under its influence: an entity in Somalia (referring to Somaliland), Darfur in Sudan, and a new state in Yemen.

Al-Dihy described these efforts as driven by "purely strategic-military" motives, rather than humanitarian concerns, aimed at securing control over key Red Sea shipping lanes and establishing military footholds in Africa.

Specifically for Yemen, he pointed to Israel's interest in leveraging the UAE-managed Berbera port in Somaliland as a base to confront threats from Yemen, implying a direct counter to the Houthis, who have disrupted international shipping with attacks on vessels in the region since late 2023.

The Yemen angle aligns with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group controlling much of southern Yemen, including key areas like Aden and parts of Hadramout and al-Mahra.

Recent escalations in southern Yemen, including STC advances against Saudi-aligned forces of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, have heightened tensions and revived talks of southern secession.

Israeli media, including Maariv, frames these developments as potential "golden opportunities" for Israel to expand influence in the Red Sea, particularly through alliances with the UAE and the STC.

One report from Al Mayadeen, citing Israeli sources, notes that recognition of a southern Yemeni entity could facilitate strategic cooperation against the Houthis (referred to as Ansarallah).

Houthi leaders have responded aggressively, with Abdul Malik al-Houthi warning that any Israeli military presence in Somaliland would be treated as a "military target" threatening Yemen and Somalia.

This comes amid broader regional backlash, including from Egypt, where media outlets express alarm over Israel's alleged map-redrawing ambitions.

Israeli officials have not publicly confirmed plans for recognizing a southern Yemeni entity, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent call with Somaliland's president underscores Jerusalem's push for new partnerships in the region.

Analysts suggest these moves could exacerbate Yemen's fragmentation, where the STC's recent territorial gains, backed by UAE forces, have already strained relations with Saudi Arabia and complicated UN-led peace efforts.

While some pro-Israel voices advocate for recognizing "South Yemen" following the Somaliland precedent, critics warn of potential blowback, including escalated Houthi attacks and wider instability.

As of now, no formal Israeli announcement has been made regarding Yemen, but the discourse in media like Maariv indicates growing consideration amid ongoing Red Sea security challenges.