U.S. Intel Gauges Fallout of Trump Ending Iran War Now
Is the war over, or is the White House just desperate? Inside the high-stakes intelligence review that could see U.S. troops coming home - and why critics say it’s a "total surrender" in disguise.
U.S. intelligence agencies are quietly examining how Iran would react if President Donald Trump declares a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war and begins drawing down American forces, a sign that the White House is actively weighing an exit from a conflict that has grown deeply unpopular at home.
The intelligence community is analyzing the question at the request of senior administration officials, according to two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
While no decision has been made (and Trump could easily ramp back up military operations), a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president.
The Political Calculus
The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year.
The war's unpopularity with the American public is stark. Only 26 percent of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign has been worth the costs, and only 25 percent said it has made the United States safer. Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days described Trump as keenly aware of the political price being paid by him and his party.
What the Intelligence Says
The assessments present a strategic dilemma. In the days after the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump declared victory and pulled forces out of the region, Iran would view it as a win. But if Trump instead said the U.S. had won while maintaining a heavy troop presence, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic, but not one that would necessarily lead to the end of the war.
A rapid pullback also carries longer-term risks. A quick de-escalation could leave behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten U.S. interests.
Official Responses
The report has drawn a notable denial from one corner of the intelligence community. The CIA's director of public affairs said the agency is "not familiar with the intelligence community's reported assessment," while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
The White House pushed back on any suggestion of a rushed exit. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the administration is still engaging with Iran on negotiations and would "not be rushed into making a bad deal," adding that the president will only enter an agreement that puts U.S. national security first and has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.
The Bigger Picture
After announcing a ceasefire, Trump did claim at one point that it was a "total and complete victory" for the United States, but he has continued to build up forces in the region and threaten further attacks. Twenty days after that ceasefire declaration, a flurry of diplomacy has failed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway, choking off shipping that carries roughly 20 percent of the world's crude oil and driving up energy costs and gasoline prices across the United States.
Reuters contributed to this article.