Red Line Rising: Xi Warns Trump of ‘Great Peril’ as $11B Taiwan Arms Dea

The most consequential bilateral summit in years got underway Thursday morning in Beijing's Great Hall of the People and within minutes, Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear what was at the top of his agenda.

As the summit kicked off, Xi warned Trump directly that US-China relations "will enjoy great stability" if the Taiwan question is handled well, but if mishandled, the two nations could face "clashes and even conflicts," pushing the entire relationship into a "highly perilous situation."

It was a blunt opening to what is expected to be a tense two days.

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Trump and Xi opened the two-day summit in Beijing with trade and security as the headline items, but Taiwan, Iran, and artificial intelligence also featured prominently on the agenda alongside tariffs and rare earths. The meeting marks the first visit by a US president to China since 2017, when Trump last made the trip during his first term.

Why Taiwan, Why Now

Beijing's insistence on raising Taiwan is not new, but the stakes feel higher than usual. China's embassy in Washington named Taiwan as the first of "four red lines" that "must not be challenged," while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had already told Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month that Taiwan represented "the biggest risk in the China-US relationship."

At the center of the dispute is a weapons package. The US authorized an $11 billion arms deal for Taiwan in December, the largest ever approved for the island, but has not yet begun fulfilling it. Trump openly told reporters before departing that he would discuss the sales with Xi, saying: "President Xi would like us not to. And I'll have that discussion."

That candid admission sent alarm bells ringing in Taipei and Washington alike. Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund warned that any rhetorical softening from Trump, even an ambiguous one, would be "the most destabilizing outcome" of the summit, arguing that a tacit concession of US influence over Taiwan could embolden China to take more assertive steps against the island's autonomy.

A bipartisan group of US senators sent a letter ahead of the trip urging Trump to make crystal clear that "American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation."

China Feels It Has Leverage

Beijing is entering these talks with unusual confidence. Chinese sources told CNN that Beijing views America's prolonged conflict with Iran as having strengthened its own negotiating hand. China's earlier threats over critical mineral exports rattled Washington enough to prompt a significant de-escalation in the tariff war, and Beijing believes it can press further.

China's long-term goal is a permanent shift in US policy, including an end to arms sales and, ultimately, an American commitment to stay out of any future conflict over the island. Analysts consider that an unlikely outcome of any single summit, but even symbolic victories matter to Beijing, which places extraordinary weight on the precise language used around Taiwan, interpreting every nuance as a signal of political alignment.

Taiwan Watches Nervously

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said he remains confident in Washington's commitment, stressing that the US has repeatedly assured Taipei its Taiwan policy will not change, but he also acknowledged the anxiety, saying: "Of course we hope that the Trump-Xi summit does not produce any surprises regarding Taiwan-related issues."

The summit runs through Friday. Few breakthroughs are expected on the most contentious issues, with the primary goal being to stabilize, rather than transform, the relationship between the world's two largest powers. Trump is also seeking trade deals, and Xi is expected to reciprocate with a visit to the United States later in the year, with possible meetings also planned alongside APEC and G20 events.