As Israel approaches "Phase 2" of the ceasefire agreement, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) has issued a sharp warning: The current flow of aid is not only sufficient, but it is also directly financing the re-armament and survival of Hamas.
According to a new IDF assessment, Israel intends to demand that the United States drastically reduce the number of aid trucks entering the strip, from the current 600 per day to no more than 200, to cut off Hamas’s primary revenue stream.
The Math of Terror Financing
The Civil Administration estimates that Hamas has turned humanitarian aid into a massive business enterprise.
- Value: Each truck entering Gaza carries goods estimated at half a million shekels.
- The Tax: Hamas levies a 15% tax on every truck, amounting to 75,000 shekels per vehicle.
- The Profit: With current volumes, Hamas is generating approximately.
- 45 million shekels ($12.5 million) per day just from aid logistics.
IDF officials report that warehouses in Gaza are currently full.
However, prices in the local markets remain artificially high because of the heavy taxation imposed by the terror group.
"The starvation campaign was a lie," said a senior COGAT officer. "No one in Gaza died of hunger."
Hamas's Long Game
Israeli intelligence assesses that Hamas is planning a strategic retreat into the shadows during the next phase.
The group is expected to allow a "technocratic government" to handle civil affairs, relieving them of the burden of governance, while maintaining their military capabilities.
The goal? To survive the interim period and re-emerge as the sole ruler of Gaza in roughly a decade.
"Green Rafah" and The Reconstruction Boom
Looking toward the future, Israel is outlining a reconstruction plan that could ironically lead to an economic boom for Israeli industry.
- Materials: It is estimated that nearly all construction materials for rebuilding Gaza will be purchased from Israel, injecting massive funds into the Israeli construction and infrastructure sectors.
- The "Green Rafah" Zone: Plans are being drawn up for a pilot complex in eastern Rafah designed to isolate residents from Hamas influence.
- Funding: While the US is pushing the plan, Israel believes the actual bill will be footed by Qatar and the UAE, as both Gulf nations seek to buy influence in the post-war reality.
The Rafah Crossing Standoff
Israel maintains a rigid stance on the Rafah Crossing between Gaza and Egypt. Officials insist it must never reopen for the transfer of goods, even at the cost of diplomatic friction.
"Israel must insist that the Rafah crossing will not open, not today and not in the future, for goods," a senior official stated.
Regarding the movement of people, a strict "Triple Lock" system is proposed: Any Gazan wishing to leave would need approval from Israel, the international operator, and Egypt. Cairo remains deeply concerned that reopening the border could lead to a flood of refugees that would destabilize the Egyptian regime.
A Demographic Surge
Despite the heavy toll of the war, which COGAT estimates at 70,000 deaths (a figure they are currently analyzing to separate combatants from civilians), the population continues to grow. Data reveals that in 2025 alone, approximately 60,000 babies were born in the Gaza Strip.
