Why Trump's Middle East Tweets Aren't What They Seem

While Israel remains on high alert and deeply concerned about the possibility of an Iranian resurgence the view from Washington is remarkably different. Many Israelis look at Donald Trump's Online activities and worry that he does not understand the complexities of the Arab world or the deceptive nature of the Iranian regime. We watch him tweet about peace with Hezbollah or a grand bargain with Iran and we laugh thinking that a man so brilliant is falling for their games, while knowing that half of what he writes, the Iranians never even agreed to.

However the reality might be far more sophisticated. Trump is not necessarily talking to the Iranians in his tweets as much as he is talking to the American public. When he announces that he has secured a package of peace and that uranium will be transferred safely, he is setting a trap. He is essentially telling the enemy that they are now part of his American brand. If they choose to destroy the package deal he has presented to his voters - he will destroy them in return.

This is the same logic he used when blockading the straits - daring them to challenge the American paradigm.

Trump operates through a form of positive manifestation.

He declares a new reality, which suits his interests, and dares his enemies to challenge the policy and undermine the tranquility he just promised.

If such challenge occurs. It would mean a double insult both to the policy, and to the man behind it, thus the challenge could get the president angry and violent, leaving the enemy with less incentive to not follow Washington's lead.

While some fear he was too quick to restrain Israel in Lebanon, it is clear he is playing a long political game. Even if the Iranians try to strike back after the American midterms they will find that they are merely providing him with the justification for an even more extreme military response.

For Israel the concerns remain valid. The peace being discussed may be temporary and a strategy built on signing and breaking contracts is inherently unstable. Perhaps the most worrying aspect for Jerusalem is the proposed twenty year veto on uranium.

The Iranian regime has already survived for fifty years so waiting another twenty to resume its nuclear ambitions is a small price for them to pay.

This only delays the problem for a single generation. Furthermore by surviving this conflict the Iranian leadership can claim victory to its own people. If they appear to have stood their ground against the United States the likelihood of an internal revolution decreases significantly. While Trump may be comfortable with this delay Israel knows that the clock is still ticking.