Israel's' Fatal Flaw
Beyond October 7: IDF Must Rebuild for the Next War, Not the Last One
Military analyst Professor Ezer Gat warns that the IDF must resist the temptation to rebuild based on the trauma of October 7, arguing that the priority should be solving the tunnel problem in Gaza and focusing investments on the primary threat posed by Iran.
The profound national trauma inflicted by the October 7 war, coupled with the resultant surge of funding allocated to the defense establishment, presents a major risk: that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will invest heavily in costly procurement and force-building programs that are geared toward fighting the previous war, rather than preparing for future, more pressing threats.
According to military analyst Professor Ezer Gat, the IDF must define clear strategic priorities based on the predicted threats of the next war. A failure to do so risks suboptimal security returns, needlessly inflating the defense budget, and damaging Israel's crucial civilian expenditures and economic resilience. The core principle must be: do not prepare for the last war.
Shifting Threat Landscape
Professor Gat identifies a significantly changed threat landscape:
Building Force for the Future: Priorities and Pitfalls
Professor Gat argues against widespread, "additive" investments across the board, the "good to have" approach that risks turning the defense establishment into a federation of branches each demanding a slice of the budget.
Key Priorities for Force Building:
Professor Gat, the holder of the Ezer Weizman Chair in National Security at Tel Aviv University, warns that if the IDF does not focus its investments on solving these core strategic challenges, especially the tunnel problem and long-range threats, it risks failing to adapt to the demands of the next war.