HISTORIC: Canada Models Hypothetical U.S. Invasion
Citing Trump's "51st State" rhetoric and the recent Venezuela raid, Ottawa outlines a guerrilla-style defense strategy.
In a unprecedented move in the history of the alliance, the Canadian Armed Forces have modeled a hypothetical invasion by the United States.
According to a report by The Globe and Mail, confirmed by two senior government officials, the contingency planning suggests that a conventional defense against the U.S. military would fail within days. Consequently, Canada’s potential response is being modeled on an insurgent playbook, utilizing guerrilla tactics similar to those employed against Soviet and U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
The strategic model acknowledges the vast disparity in military power between the two NATO founding members. Officials state that American forces would likely overcome Canada’s strategic positions at sea and on land "within a week and possibly as quickly as two days."
Therefore, the "conceptual and theoretical framework" focuses on:
Trump’s "51st State" Rhetoric
The modeling comes amid heightened tensions following President Trump’s recent public comments floating the idea of Canada as a potential "51st state," as well as his renewed interest in acquiring Greenland.
The geopolitical temperature has risen sharply following the U.S. military’s January 3rd assault on Venezuela, which successfully overthrew Nicolás Maduro. While Canadian officials emphasize that a U.S. invasion remains highly unlikely, the administration in Ottawa is reportedly unnerved by Washington's newfound interventionism.
The Greenland Flashpoint
Adding to the complexity, reports indicate Canada is considering deploying troops to Greenland. This potential move would join European Union deployments signaling to Washington that Denmark, and its allies, are not prepared to cede the resource-rich Arctic territory.
Despite these tensions, bilateral cooperation remains intact for now. Officials noted that an actual invasion would be preceded by obvious warning signs, such as the collapse of trade, visa bans, and the U.S. withdrawing from NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command).