UAE Money and Egyptian Intelligence: The New Alliance to Replace Hamas
In a move to prevent a power vacuum in Gaza, Egypt is increasingly backing Mohammad Dahlan, a former security chief with deep ties to the UAE, as a potential stabilizer for the region.
As the war continues to reshape the Palestinian landscape, Egypt is quietly advancing a plan to install Mohammad Dahlan as a key figure in the "day after" strategy for Gaza. Dahlan, who currently resides in the United Arab Emirates and serves as an advisor to the royal family, possesses a unique set of assets that make him an attractive candidate for Cairo. He is a native of Gaza with deep roots in its local clans, a former security chief who understands the territory’s power dynamics, and a fierce rival of both Hamas and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Egypt’s interest in Dahlan is not new. He has appeared frequently in Egyptian media, often in interviews that are interpreted as a signal of political backing from Sisi’s government. In past statements on Egyptian television, Dahlan himself admitted to visiting Egypt to perform specific "services" requested by Cairo. This relationship is part of a broader strategy known as the "Arab Quartet" initiative, which seeks to reconcile Dahlan with the Fatah movement, hold new elections, and unite the Palestinian leadership under a security focused administration.
For President Sisi, the current Palestinian Authority is seen as too weak and fragmented to effectively govern Gaza after the war. At the same time, Egypt remains committed to preventing Hamas from maintaining an independent, armed presence. Dahlan represents a "middle path" for Cairo, a figure who can speak the language of security that Egypt demands while bringing the massive financial backing of the Emirates to rebuild the shattered coastal enclave.
The alliance between Egypt and the UAE regarding Dahlan creates a powerful synergy. The Emirates provide the capital and international influence, while Egypt provides the intelligence, the Rafah border crossing, and the military legitimacy. By positioning Dahlan as a central player, Egypt is attempting to ensure that any future Palestinian arrangement is not built over its head, but rather remains under its direct influence and supervision.
Dahlan’s background as the former head of the Preventive Security Force in Gaza means he has firsthand experience fighting the very groups that now dominate the territory. While he is a controversial figure among many Palestinians, Cairo believes his ability to reach understandings with both Fatah and certain elements within Gaza makes him an indispensable tool for stabilization. This is not about crowning a new king, but about creating a mechanism where security is controlled and the border remains quiet.
This strategic move also serves to challenge the status quo of the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. Egypt is frustrated with the aging leadership of Abu Mazen and believes a younger, more security minded leadership is required to handle the complexities of the post war era. By holding the "Dahlan card," Egypt is ensuring it remains the ultimate gatekeeper of the Gaza Strip, dictating who enters, who leads, and how the territory is policed in the years to come.