Israel Could Face "Tens or Hundreds" of Rockets a Day in Renewed War
If fighting resumes now, Iran may instead seek a “short but high intensity” war, using large daily barrages to change the calculations of Israel and the United States.
Israel could face “tens or hundreds of missiles a day” if the war with Iran resumes, Iranian security expert Hamidreza Azizi told The New York Times on Monday.
Azizi, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said a renewed conflict would likely look different from the fighting that began in late February. During the earlier phase of the war, he said, Iran expected a prolonged confrontation and rationed its missile fire in order to sustain operations for several weeks.
If fighting resumes now, Azizi assessed, Iran may instead seek a “short but high intensity” war, using large daily barrages to change the calculations of Israel and the United States.
Such a campaign could include heavy missile fire at Israel while Iran tries to defend its energy infrastructure from coordinated US and Israeli strikes.
Azizi also warned that Iran could target Gulf oil fields, refineries and ports in an effort to damage the global economy and pressure Washington. Such attacks could force Gulf states into a conflict they have tried to avoid.
The warning comes after US President Donald Trump said Monday that he had delayed a planned strike on Iran at the request of Gulf leaders, including Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that “serious negotiations are now taking place” and that Gulf leaders believed a deal could be reached that would be acceptable to the United States and the region.
He said the agreement would include “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN,” but added that he had instructed the US military to remain ready for a “full, large-scale assault” if talks fail.
Trump later told reporters there was a “very good chance” of reaching an agreement with Iran that would prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Azizi said Iran could also try to expand pressure beyond the Strait of Hormuz by leveraging the Bab el-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The area is already vulnerable due to Houthi activity from Yemen.
He said such a move could force the United States to focus on two maritime fronts at once.
The Houthis, an Iran-backed terrorist proxy in Yemen, have previously launched attacks in support of Hamas, raising fears among Gulf states that a wider regional escalation could disrupt both Gulf and Red Sea shipping routes.